If oil stays around $50 a barrel, most countries in the region will
run out of cash in five years or less, warned a dire report from the
International Monetary Fund this week. That includes OPEC leader Saudi
Arabia as well as Oman and Bahrain.
Low oil prices will wipe out an estimated $360 billion from the region this year alone, the IMF said.
Huge
budget surpluses are quickly swinging to massive deficits as oil prices
have crashed to around $45 currently from over $100 last year. Many of
these countries are being forced to tap into rainy day funds to weather
the storm.
"Oil exporters will need to adjust their spending and revenue policies to ensure fiscal sustainability," the IMF wrote.
The
depressed oil prices have come at a time when spending has gone up as
many of these countries are grappling with regional violence and
turbulence in financial markets.
Saudi
Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around
$106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates. The kingdom
barely has enough fiscal buffers to survive five years of $50 oil, the
IMF said.
That's why Saudi Arabia is moving fast to preserve
cash. The kingdom not only raised $4 billion by selling bonds earlier
this year, but its central bank has yanked up to $70 billion from asset
management firms like BlackRock over the past six months.
After
years of huge surpluses, Saudi Arabia's current account deficit is
projected to soar to 20 percent of gross domestic product this year,
Capital Economics estimates. Saudi Arabia's war chest of cash is still
humungous at nearly $700 billion, but it's shrinking fast.
-CNNmoney
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